What incurred-but-not-reported really means, why it is almost always the largest piece of a self-insured entity's reserves, and how to read an IBNR estimate without being an actuary.
By Sam · Apr 1, 2026 The Actuarial Standards Board's revised ASOP No. 20 takes effect June 1, broadening the standard from claim discounting to all property/casualty cash flow analysis and expanding documentation and disclosure requirements for reserve reports.
A WCRI study of 12 million claims finds rural hospital closures push injured workers five miles farther for emergency care and shift utilization toward office and ambulatory settings, yet total WC claim costs and disability duration remain statistically unchanged.
The WCRI CompScope California 2026 edition finds benefit delivery expenses per claim grew 9% in 2025, outpacing medical and indemnity growth and signaling that LAE development patterns in self-insured programs need separate tracking.
The AMA's 2025 Medical Liability Monitor analysis shows nearly 40% of premiums rose for the seventh consecutive year, with 11 states posting double-digit increases that confirm severity is outrunning declining claim frequency for self-insured hospitals.
Lockton's May 2026 casualty analysis shows $1.8 billion in commercial auto adverse development, with nearly $1.6 billion from accident years 2022 and 2023 alone, signaling that development factors for recent vintages are undershooting realized severity.
NCCI's April 2026 Medical Inflation Insights shows workers' comp medical prices grew just 1.8% year over year, well below CPI medical at 4.0%, but the agency warns the pace is temporary and expects reversion toward 2.5% as hospital outpatient costs normalize.
The BLS Producer Price Index for nonresidential construction inputs rose 6.6% year over year in April 2026, with tariff-exposed metals leading the spike and pressuring claim severity for GL construction defect, public entity property damage, and WC construction classes.
A 6-1 ruling holds that New Jersey's Child Victims Act supersedes Tort Claims Act immunity, allowing vicarious liability claims against school districts for employee sexual abuse even outside the scope of employment.
The interview is where you separate the signing actuary who will do the work from the firm that just bid well. Here are the questions to ask, what good answers sound like, and what weak answers sound like.
The ten things a good proposal contains, the seven red flags that should stop you from engaging, and how to compare two bids that come back with different structures.
Fee ranges by program type, the scope levers that move price up and down, and the red flags in a quote that looks too cheap or too expensive.
The sections an RFP actually needs, the data package to send with it, and what to leave out so the proposals you receive are comparable and the engagement runs clean.
The triggers that make a second opinion worth the fee, how to scope it so it delivers real information, and how to run one without destroying your primary actuary relationship.
When adjusters start setting higher case reserves, your reported triangle inflates, your development factors shift, and the chain ladder overstates the ultimate. Here is how to spot it, what it costs, and what to require from your actuary.
A section-by-section scoring framework for judging whether the methods, diagnostics, assumptions, and range in your reserve report are sound, not just present.
How quarterly monitoring catches reserve drift before it compounds, what it includes that a full annual review does not, and what to require from your actuary between opinions.
The IBNR line on your actuarial report bundles two very different uncertainties into one number; understanding which piece is driving the estimate changes what you should ask and how you should fund.
A framework for identifying whether your reserve estimate was distorted by operational changes, and the specific questions that turn a black-box number into something you can evaluate.
A loss triangle looks like a spreadsheet with a staircase cut out of it. Here is what the rows, columns, and diagonals are telling you, and what to look for before you trust the projection on the bottom line.
A single-number reserve looks decisive. A range looks honest. The right choice depends on what you are using the estimate for, and the answer is rarely the middle of the range.
How actuaries estimate unpaid auto liability claims for self-insured fleets, why bodily injury severity dominates the reserve, and what to require in the report.
How actuaries estimate unpaid medical professional liability claims for hospitals and health systems, why the captive structure creates a net-exceeds-gross wrinkle, and what to require in the report.
How actuaries estimate unpaid general liability claims for public entities, why latent exposures and revival windows make the tail longer than it looks, and what to require in the report.
Four risk-financing structures look similar from the outside but create different reserve obligations, different regulatory expectations, and different actuarial workflows; here is how to tell them apart and what each one means for the number on your balance sheet.
How actuaries estimate unpaid workers compensation claims for self-insured programs, what drives the number, and what to require in the report.
What IBNR means for a group captive or risk retention group, how actuaries handle pooling and per-occurrence retentions, and what to expect from a reserve study.
What IBNR means for a self-funded employer health plan, how actuaries estimate it, and what to expect from a reserve study.
What IBNR means for a single-parent captive insurer, how actuaries estimate it, and what to expect from the annual reserve study and Statement of Actuarial Opinion.
The five claim-level metrics that predict adverse reserve development 6 to 18 months before it shows up in your actuarial report, and how to ask your TPA for them.
How to diagnose whether your adverse reserve development is coming from case reserves, payment patterns, or claim mix, and what to do about each one.
The GAAP accrual rules for self-insured losses, how a range with a best estimate gets treated differently from a range without one, and what the external auditor is trying to conclude when they review your reserve number.
What the audit committee needs to see on reserves, the five questions that should be asked every year, and how a CFO or risk manager prepares the packet that turns a technical topic into a governance conversation.
What each major domicile actually examines in the annual filing, the reserve review requirements, solvency triggers, and what 'regulated but light' means in practice. For anyone choosing a domicile or considering a re-domicile.
How state workers comp bureaus set collateral requirements, why the number often exceeds the actuarial reserve, and how to negotiate with the bureau when the requirement feels disconnected from your actual exposure.
The risk shifting and risk distribution tests, what the IRS actually evaluates, how reserve methodology ties to deductibility, and what recent micro-captive rulings mean for conventional captive owners.
Every reserve estimate starts from one equation and five methods. Here is what each method assumes, when it works, when it breaks, and which one your actuary probably leaned on for the number you are signing off on.
The chain ladder is the most widely used reserving method, and the one most likely to produce the number on your balance sheet. Here is how it works, what it assumes, and where it fails.
BF blends the chain ladder's development pattern with an expected claim ratio, weighted by maturity. Here is how it works, what it assumes, and why it is the natural default for your most recent accident years.
How gross, ceded, and net reserves should bridge in a fronted captive, why net IBNR can sometimes exceed gross, and the six questions to ask about your actuary's gross-to-net bridge.
When your claims operation changes mid-stream, the historical triangle lies. Berquist-Sherman is the standard correction, and you should know what it does, what it assumes, and when to demand it.
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